He’s the one to beat. But is he the one to win?

Photo © 2016 Paul L. Gleiser

The Washington Examiner’s Byron York wrote an insightful column at Townhall.com Tuesday.

In that column, he cites the same late August Wall Street Journal poll that I recently cited in which Donald Trump holds a 59 to 13 lead over Ron DeSantis. That 46-point lead is double that of the same poll last April. (Articles may be behind a paywall.)

If you believe this  — and every other — national poll, former president Donald Trump appears to be unbeatable for the 2024 Republican nomination.

The question thus begs, is that a good thing if the goal is to defeat Joe Biden (or some other Democrat to be named later) in the general election a year from this November?

Writing in his column, Byron York raises the same concerns that I have been raising. As impressive as Trump’s numbers are among Republican primary voters, the general election poses a much more daunting challenge.

For purposes of this discussion let me stipulate that the four prosecutions that Donald Trump now faces constitute the classic definition of the word inequity. These prosecutions are political. Evidence to support that stipulation lies in the answer to this question: Would any prominent Democrat, or nearly anyone else not named ‘Trump,’ be indicted on the same set of facts?

The honest answer is, ‘unlikely.’ All four indictments rely on stretching the law to suit the agendas of avowedly partisan prosecutors – two of whom attained election to office in deep blue precincts on the very promise of prosecuting Donald Trump. All four indictments constitute an affront to the ideals of a nation founded on the rule of law.

But that doesn’t make them go away. And there lies the challenge for Donald Trump. The first of his four trials begins on March 4 in Washington, D.C. Twenty one days later, his trial on charges in New York City begins. A bit more than six weeks after that, he faces trial in federal court in Florida. Somewhere in there, a fourth trial date will be set in Fulton County, Georgia.

Such defines Trump’s spring and summer calendar.

All these court battles – together with others both civil and criminal that likely will follow, will drain Trump of money, and more critically, time, just when he will need both in abundance. And yet, of even greater concern, the chances of him being acquitted on 91 felony counts spread across four jurisdictions are close to zero.

If he hopes to regain the presidency, Trump must go three for five for the electoral votes from blue-leaning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. A national poll of likely GOP voters is close to meaningless in that context.

What is meaningful is a recent CNN poll that shows a judicially unencumbered Nikki Haley beating Joe Biden 49 to 43, making her the only Republican to poll above the margin of error against Biden.

I’ve said it before. Trump was the best president since Ronald Reagan. The question now is, given what we know and what is likely to come, is he the best candidate for 2024?